Keep clients coming back · Every business
How Fast Customers Forget a Business, and When to Reach Back Out
The oldest measurement of forgetting shows memory falling steeply in the first day and then leveling off, which suggests a business should be in touch early after a visit and again just before the next one is due, rather than at random.
At a glance
- In the original forgetting experiments published in 1885, about one third of what had been learned remained after a day, about one fourth after six days and about one fifth after a month.
- The curve was replicated in a study published in PLOS ONE in 2015, which found the same steep early drop followed by a long, slow decline.
- For an illustrative barbershop where 300 regulars a year pass their usual return date, a well-timed reminder that brings back 8% of them is worth about $6,480 a year.
The number and where it comes from
The forgetting curve comes from a series of experiments in which a researcher memorized lists of nonsense syllables, waited a set time and then measured how much less effort it took to learn the same list again, a measure he called savings. His summary of the results is the number behind every forgetting chart since: after one hour, about half of the original effort had to be spent again; after a day, about one third of the learning remained; after six days, about one fourth; and after a month, fully one fifth.
A replication published in PLOS ONE repeated the experiment more than a century later, at intervals from 20 minutes to 31 days, and concluded that the curve had indeed been reproduced, with a small upward jump at the one-day mark that the authors flagged for further study.
These were nonsense syllables memorized in a lab, not a pleasant haircut or a furnace that works again, and a customer remembers a real experience far better than a string of meaningless letters. The shape is still useful to an owner, because it suggests two things that hold in daily life: the details a customer was told at the visit fade fastest in the first day, and what remains after that fades slowly, so the business slips from front of mind gradually over the weeks before the next visit is due.
When to reach back out
The curve points to two moments, one early and one late. The early message, sent the same day, puts the visit's details in writing before they fade, which is why the thank-you with care steps and the photo of the finished work belongs on day one rather than day five. The late message arrives just before the customer is due again, when the business has faded to the background, and a reminder at that point has the strongest evidence behind it, since a Cochrane review of 55 studies with 138,625 people found that reminders raised the share who came in for a due visit by 8 percentage points.
Between those two points, a message every week adds little except noise. A customer with a six-week color cycle needs the day-one message, perhaps a check-in on day two or three and then a reminder around week five; a homeowner with a yearly tune-up needs the day-one message and then a reminder about a month before the season.
| Regulars who pass their usual return date in a year without rebooking (Assumption) | 300 |
|---|---|
| Share brought back by a reminder sent a few days before they're due (Cochrane review benchmark (8 percentage points)) | 8% |
| Regulars brought back (Calculated (300 × 8%)) | 24 |
| Visits each over the following year (Assumption (about every eight weeks)) | 6 |
| Average haircut (Assumption) | $45 |
| Revenue kept per year (Calculated (24 × 6 × $45)) | $6,480 |
Illustrative example; replace every assumption with your own numbers.
How you compare
- Day one: if customers leave with nothing in writing, the forgetting curve suggests most of the advice given at the chair is gone by the next morning.
- Before the next visit: in the Cochrane review, about one more person in 12 came back when reminded. A business that sends no reminder is starting below that line.
- Your own baseline: list the customers who passed their usual return date last quarter, and count how many came back within two weeks after it. That share is the number a well-timed reminder should raise.
About this research: This article draws on the original forgetting experiments of 1885, a 2015 replication published in PLOS ONE and a Cochrane systematic review of reminder and recall interventions. The forgetting studies measured memory for nonsense syllables and the reminder studies measured vaccinations, so neither measures customers forgetting a business directly; the shape of the curve and the effect of reminders are the parts that carry over. The worked example is illustrative.
Sources
- Ebbinghaus, H. Memory: A Contribution to Experimental Psychology, Chapter 7. 1885; English translation 1913, Classics in the History of Psychology, York University.
- Murre, J. M. J. and Dros, J. Replication and Analysis of Ebbinghaus' Forgetting Curve. PLOS ONE 10(7), 2015.
- Jacobson Vann, J. C., Jacobson, R. M., Coyne-Beasley, T., Asafu-Adjei, J. K. and Szilagyi, P. G. Patient Reminder and Recall Interventions to Improve Immunization Rates. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 2018. 55 studies, 138,625 participants in the pooled comparison.
Related reading: Why Customers Don't Come Back (and How to Find Out Which Ones Left) · Email List or Social Followers: Which One Brings Customers Back? · Following Up Without Being Annoying: A Simple Post-Service Sequence
Work with osNOVA on reaching customers at the right time
We help owner-run service businesses set the day-one message and the before-you're-due reminder for every service they sell, timed to each customer's own visit cycle, starting from what you want more of, whether that is more regulars, fuller weeks or fewer customers who quietly drift to someone else.
Email hello@osnovaops.com about your business
Or leave your email and we will reach out
Tell us what kind of business you run and what you want more of.
Not ready to talk? osNOVA runs free live events for owners.