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How Demand for Services Rises and Falls Through the Year
Government employment data show how far service demand swings from month to month, and in some trades the busiest month needs more than twice the staff of the quietest one.
At a glance
- In tax preparation services, payroll employment in 2022 ran from about 142,200 in February to about 62,300 in August, a peak-to-low ratio of 2.3, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
- Seasonal swings are smaller but still large in leisure trades: amusement park and arcade employment rose 36% from January to July in 2024, from 199,700 to 271,500.
- A seasonal index (each month's sales divided by the average month) turns those swings into a planning number; for an illustrative business with three months at 70% of average, the cash needed to ride out the low season is about $12,000.
The number and where it comes from
Employers hire for the work they expect, so monthly employment figures that are not seasonally adjusted are one of the clearest public records of how demand moves through the year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes these counts by industry from its payroll surveys, and its Economics Daily series has charted the trades with the sharpest swings.
Tax preparation is the most extreme case among everyday services. In 2022 the industry averaged 95,097 employees, but the monthly count stood at 142,242 in February and 62,255 in August, so the industry employed 56% fewer people at its low point than at its peak; BLS notes that employment usually peaks in February and bottoms out between July and September. Landscaping, by the same agency's account, rises quickly in spring and peaks in summer, while nurseries and garden stores peak in May.
The pattern runs the other way in leisure. Amusement park and arcade employment in 2024 was lowest in January and highest in July, and average weekly hours in the industry ranged from 20.0 in May to 26.6 in July, so the summer peak shows up both in headcount and in longer shifts.
Turning the swing into a plan
A seasonal index tells an owner how much of the year's work lands in each month: divide each month's sales by the average month. In the BLS tax preparation figures, February's index is 1.50 and August's is 0.65; a salon, HVAC company or studio can build the same index from two or three years of its own monthly sales.
| Average monthly sales (Assumption) | $50,000 |
|---|---|
| Share of sales left after materials and commissions (Assumption) | 60% |
| Monthly costs that don't fall with demand (rent, salaried staff, software, loan) (Assumption) | $25,000 |
| Seasonal index in the three slowest months (Assumption) | 0.70 |
| Sales in a slow month (Calculated ($50,000 × 0.70)) | $35,000 |
| Money left after materials and commissions (Calculated ($35,000 × 60%)) | $21,000 |
| Shortfall per slow month (Calculated ($21,000 − $25,000)) | $4,000 |
| Reserve needed for the slow season (Calculated ($4,000 × 3)) | $12,000 |
| Surplus in a peak month at an index of 1.30 (Calculated ($65,000 × 60% − $25,000)) | $14,000 |
Illustrative example; replace every assumption with your own numbers.
The same business earns $60,000 over the year ($600,000 in sales × 60%, minus $300,000 in fixed costs), so the slow season is a timing problem rather than a profit problem, and it is solved by setting aside part of each peak month's surplus before the slow months arrive.
How you compare
- Your peak-to-low ratio: divide your best month's sales by your slowest month's. A ratio near 1.3 is a seasonal business in the range of amusement parks; above 2, you are closer to tax preparation and need a staffing and cash plan for each season.
- Your low months: list the months with an index below 0.85, and check whether your reminders, maintenance plans and off-season services are aimed at those months.
- Your own baseline: build the index from at least two years, because one unusual year can disguise the pattern.
Pull the last two years of monthly sales from your bookkeeping system this week and divide each month by the average, so the next slow season starts with a reserve figure rather than a surprise.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment in tax preparation services averaged 95,000 in 2022. The Economics Daily, April 2024. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Amusement park employment: it's a roller coaster. The Economics Daily, July 2025. Current Employment Statistics, not seasonally adjusted.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Industries with spring employment peaks. The Economics Daily, April 2015.
Related reading: How to Stay Booked in the Slow Season Without Discounting · Seasonal Reminder Calendars for HVAC, Landscaping and Pest Control · Cash Flow, Not Sales, Is Why Many Small Businesses Fail · Staffing for Seasonal Peaks: Temporary Help, Overtime and Cross-Training
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