Win more of your leads · Every business
Why Following Up on Estimates Wins Jobs, Shown in Numbers
An estimate that gets no reply is often a customer who hasn't decided yet, and research on follow-up contact suggests one more touch can move a close rate by several points.
At a glance
- A Cochrane review of 481 randomized trials of mailed questionnaires found that a follow-up contact raised the odds of getting a response by 35%.
- People asking for something underestimate how often others will say yes, by as much as 50% in a set of studies in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, a misjudgment that can lead owners to give up on quotes too early.
- For an illustrative contractor sending 20 estimates a month at a 30% close rate, a follow-up with that effect would add about 16 jobs and $47,900 a year.
The number and where it comes from
Most owners send an estimate, wait and read silence as a no, with a familiar thought behind it: If they wanted it, they'd call. The best evidence on what one more contact does comes from an unexpected place, the research on getting people to return questionnaires, where hundreds of randomized trials have tested what makes a busy person reply. A Cochrane systematic review of 481 trials of mailed questionnaires found that contacting people who had not responded raised the odds of a response by 35% (odds ratio 1.35, 95% confidence interval 1.18 to 1.55).
A questionnaire is not a $3,000 water heater, and the review measured replies rather than signed jobs, so the figure is a borrowed benchmark rather than a promise. It still describes the same situation an estimate sits in, a request that the customer meant to answer and then set aside, and it suggests that much of the silence after an estimate is delay rather than refusal.
The second number helps explain why following up feels harder than it is. In a series of studies published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, people asking others for something underestimated how many would agree, by as much as 50%, because they focused on the cost of saying yes and overlooked how awkward it feels to say no. An owner who expects a follow-up to annoy the customer is making the same misjudgment.
What the odds ratio means for your close rate
An odds ratio is easier to use once it is turned into a close rate. If a share p of estimates close today, the odds are p ÷ (1 − p); multiplying those odds by 1.35 and converting back gives the close rate the review's effect would imply.
| Close rate today | Close rate with the review's follow-up effect | Gain in points |
|---|---|---|
| 20% | 25.2% | 5.2 |
| 25% | 31.0% | 6.0 |
| 30% | 36.7% | 6.7 |
| 40% | 47.4% | 7.4 |
The worked calculation
| Estimates sent per month (Assumption) | 20 |
|---|---|
| Estimates per year (Calculated (20 × 12)) | 240 |
| Close rate today (Assumption) | 30% |
| Close rate with follow-up (Calculated (odds ratio 1.35, Exhibit 1)) | 36.7% |
| Added jobs per year (Calculated (240 × 6.65 points)) | about 16 |
| Average job (Assumption) | $3,000 |
| Added revenue per year (Calculated (15.96 jobs × $3,000)) | about $47,900 |
Illustrative example; replace every assumption with your own numbers. The effect comes from questionnaire research and is a benchmark, not a forecast.
The calculation counts revenue, not profit, and it assumes your follow-up is as good as a well-run study's, meaning it happens every time, on schedule, to every open estimate. That last condition is the hard part; a study in the Journal of Marketing of 461 sales reps at four firms starts from the observation that about 70% of the leads marketing departments generate are never pursued by sales.
Widget note for the site: a lean calculator with three sliders (estimates per month, close rate today, average job) and one result, added revenue per year, using the odds-ratio conversion above.
How you compare
- Your close rate: divide signed jobs by estimates sent for the last 90 days, which gives the baseline every follow-up change is measured against.
- Your silent estimates: count the open estimates older than seven days with no second contact. In a well-run system that number is zero.
- Replies in general: in an audit of 2,241 U.S. companies published in Harvard Business Review, 23% never answered a new web inquiry at all, so a business that answers every inquiry and follows up on every estimate is already ahead of nearly a quarter of the companies studied.
Sources
- Edwards, P. J., Roberts, I., Clarke, M. J. et al. Methods to Increase Response to Postal and Electronic Questionnaires. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 2009. 481 trials of postal questionnaires.
- Flynn, F. J. and Lake, V. K. B. If You Need Help, Just Ask: Underestimating Compliance With Direct Requests for Help. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 95(1), 2008.
- Sabnis, G., Chatterjee, S. C., Grewal, R. and Lilien, G. L. The Sales Lead Black Hole: On Sales Reps' Follow-Up of Marketing Leads. Journal of Marketing, 2013. 461 sales reps at four firms.
- Oldroyd, J. B., McElheran, K. and Elkington, D. The Short Life of Online Sales Leads. Harvard Business Review, March 2011. Audit of 2,241 U.S. companies.
Related reading: What to Include in a Home Service Estimate Follow-Up · Why Answering Within an Hour Can Decide Who Gets the Job · How Roofers and Remodelers Win on Trust Instead of Price · 9 Reasons Bookings Slow Down (free live session)
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